{"id":52362,"date":"2025-09-13T11:50:21","date_gmt":"2025-09-13T07:50:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/azerbaycan.media\/?p=52362"},"modified":"2025-09-13T11:50:21","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T07:50:21","slug":"rubl-olur-iqtisadiyyat-tenezzulle-uz-uzedir-inflyasiya-devalvasiya-sosial-t%c9%99latuml%c9%99r-qapidadir-reqemler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/azerbaycan.media\/?p=52362","title":{"rendered":"RUBL \u201c\u00d6L\u00dcR\u201d, \u0130QT\u0130SAD\u0130YYAT T\u018fN\u018fZZ\u00dcLL\u018f \u00dcZ-\u00dcZ\u018fD\u0130R – \u0130nflyasiya, devalvasiya, sosial t\u0259lat\u00fcml\u0259r qap\u0131dad\u0131r + R\u018fQ\u018fML\u018fR"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u0130qtisadi \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f Putini m\u00fcharib\u0259ni dayand\u0131rma\u011fa vadar ed\u0259c\u0259kmi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Kreml h\u0259r n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r m\u00fcharib\u0259nin v\u0259 sanksiyalar\u0131n Rusiya iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131 sars\u0131tmas\u0131n\u0131 gizl\u0259tm\u0259y\u0259, h\u0259tta bunun m\u00fcsb\u0259t effekt verdiyini izah etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsa da, real m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259 kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r a\u011f\u0131r, h\u0259tta ac\u0131nacaql\u0131d\u0131r…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Art\u0131q son 9 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr ki, Rusiya rublu dayanmadan d\u0259y\u0259r itirir. Bu, \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 valyuta ax\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131, xaricd\u0259n mal idxal\u0131n\u0131n is\u0259 artmas\u0131ndan qaynaqlan\u0131r. Y\u0259ni, t\u0259diy\u0259 balans\u0131 Rusiyan\u0131n xeyrin\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fmir.<\/p>\n

Lakin problem t\u0259kc\u0259 bunda deyil. Rusiya b\u00fcdc\u0259si 1990-c\u0131 ill\u0259r\u0259dn b\u0259ri \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k b\u00fcdc\u0259 k\u0259sirl\u0259ri il\u0259 \u00fcz-\u00fcz\u0259 qalmaqdad\u0131r. Vladimir Putin h\u0259l\u0259 Alyaska s\u0259f\u0259rind\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259l iqtisadi u\u011furlar\u0131 il\u0259 \u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fcr, b\u00fcdc\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259tinin sabit, inflyasiya v\u0259 i\u015fsizlik s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin is\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu deyirdi. Ancaq bu, primitiv t\u0259bli\u011fat tryuku v\u0259 getdikc\u0259 artan iqtisadi probleml\u0259ri \u00f6rt-basd\u0131r etm\u0259kd\u0259n ba\u015fqa bir \u015fey deyildi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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<\/ins>Birincisi, Rusiya b\u00fcdc\u0259si qeyri-adi d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 \u00e7\u0259tin v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259dir. \u0130kincisi, h\u0259tta r\u0259smi m\u0259lumatlara g\u00f6r\u0259, Rusiyada iqtisadi art\u0131m z\u0259ifl\u0259yir, dayanmaq \u00fczr\u0259dir v\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadi depressiya il\u0259 \u00fcz-\u00fcz\u0259dir.<\/p>\n

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\u0130qtisadi m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ke\u00e7iril\u0259n son m\u00fc\u015favir\u0259d\u0259 Putin qeyri-neft v\u0259 qaz g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin 14% artd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 qeyd edib, lakin eyni d\u00f6vrd\u0259 \u00fcmumi g\u0259lirl\u0259rin c\u0259mi 2,8%, x\u0259rcl\u0259rin is\u0259 21%(!) artd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, y\u0259ni, x\u0259rcl\u0259rin g\u0259lirl\u0259ri 7 d\u0259f\u0259(!) \u00fcst\u0259l\u0259diyi bar\u0259d\u0259 susub. \u0130lin t\u0259kc\u0259 yeddi ay\u0131 \u0259rzind\u0259 federal b\u00fcdc\u0259 k\u0259siri 2024-c\u00fc ill\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 art\u0131q 4,5 d\u0259f\u0259 \u00e7oxdur. Bu, 4,9 trilyon rubl t\u0259\u015fkil edir. Bel\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259 k\u0259siri Putinin hakimiyy\u0259ti d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 he\u00e7 vaxt olmay\u0131b.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u0130lin sonunda b\u00fcdc\u0259 k\u0259sirinin daha da artaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. Rusiyal\u0131 m\u00fct\u0259x\u0259ssisl\u0259rin hesablamalar\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259, 2025-ci ilin sonuna g\u0259lirl\u0259r 40,7 trilyon, x\u0259rcl\u0259r 46,6 trilyon olacaq v\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259 k\u0259siri 6,9 trilyona \u00e7atacaq. H\u0259tta b\u0259zil\u0259ri \u00f6t\u0259n ilin dinamikas\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq, k\u0259sirin 10,7 trilyon rubl, y\u0259ni \u00dcDM-in 5%-ini t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259c\u0259yini deyirl\u0259r. Bu is\u0259 son 16 ild\u0259 \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck k\u0259sir olacaq.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Federal b\u00fcdc\u0259 k\u0259siri haz\u0131rda Rusiya hakimiyy\u0259ti \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn olduqca ciddi problemdir, \u00e7\u00fcnki k\u0259sirin maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si getdikc\u0259 \u00e7\u0259tinl\u0259\u015fir. Burada iki yol var: daxili kreditl\u0259r v\u0259 hesablara q\u0259na\u0259t. Daxili kreditl\u0259rin 90%-i d\u0259rhal kreditorlara qaytar\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r – daxili borc \u00fczr\u0259 faiz \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015fl\u0259rinin m\u0259bl\u0259\u011fi is\u0259 kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 art\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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\u018fsas problem is\u0259 ondan ibar\u0259tdir ki, Rusiya Milli Rifah Fondunun(Bizd\u0259ki Neft Fondunun analoqu) likvid hiss\u0259sind\u0259 4 trilyon rubldan az v\u0259sait qal\u0131b. V\u0259ziyy\u0259t \u0259sasl\u0131 \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259zs\u0259, o zaman bu m\u0259bl\u0259\u011f d\u00f6rd aydan az m\u00fcdd\u0259t\u0259 kifay\u0259t ed\u0259c\u0259k. Daha 5,1 trilyon rubl d\u00f6vl\u0259tin M\u0259rk\u0259zi Banka olan xalis t\u0259l\u0259bl\u0259ridir. Bu da t\u0259xmin\u0259n 7 aya yet\u0259c\u0259k.<\/strong>\u00a0Bel\u0259likl\u0259, Kremlin b\u00fcdc\u0259ni qidaland\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259li \u00e7atan v\u0259saitl\u0259r – ehtiyatlar c\u0259mi bir il\u0259d\u0259k t\u00fck\u0259n\u0259 bil\u0259r. He\u00e7 n\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259s\u0259, ondan sonra ya h\u0259r ay bir trilyon rubla yax\u0131n borc g\u00f6t\u00fcrm\u0259k, ya da pul \u00e7ap etm\u0259k m\u0259cburiy\u0259tind\u0259 qalacaqlar. Bu, Putin h\u00f6kum\u0259tl\u0259rinin son 25 il \u0259rzind\u0259 qa\u00e7ma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fd\u0131\u011f\u0131 1990-c\u0131 ill\u0259rin pul \u00e7ap\u0131 v\u0259 borc iqtisadiyyat\u0131na qay\u0131tmaq olacaq. Bu da qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz inflyasiya, devalvasiya, sosial t\u0259lat\u00fcml\u0259r v\u0259 s. dem\u0259kdir.<\/p>\n

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Rusiya b\u00fcdc\u0259sinin \u0259n a\u011f\u0131r y\u00fck\u00fc, \u0259lb\u0259tt\u0259 ki, m\u00fcharib\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259ridir. T\u0259kc\u0259 federal b\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259n m\u00fcharib\u0259y\u0259 2025-ci ild\u0259 13,2 trilyon rubl ayr\u0131l\u0131b. M\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259l bu m\u0259bl\u0259\u011f t\u0259xmin\u0259n 6 trilyon rubl olub. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, t\u0259kc\u0259 m\u0259rk\u0259zi b\u00fcdc\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Ukrayna il\u0259 m\u00fcharib\u0259nin d\u0259y\u0259ri r\u0259sm\u0259n 7,2 trilyon rubldur. N\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaq ki, qeyri-r\u0259smi v\u0259 dolay\u0131 x\u0259rcl\u0259r daha \u00e7oxdur.<\/strong>\u00a0M\u00fcharib\u0259 federal b\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259n \u0259lav\u0259, vilay\u0259tl\u0259r v\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259t \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n d\u0259 maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilir. 2025-ci ild\u0259 regionlar h\u0259rbi ehtiyaclara t\u0259xmin\u0259n 1,2 trilyon rubl x\u0259rcl\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. Regionlar\u0131n h\u0259rbi b\u00fcdc\u0259l\u0259rinin \u0259ks\u0259riyy\u0259tini h\u0259rb\u00e7il\u0259r, qa\u00e7q\u0131nlar v\u0259 h\u0259lak olanlar\u0131n ail\u0259l\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcavin\u0259tl\u0259r t\u0259\u015fkil edir. B\u00f6lg\u0259l\u0259r m\u00fclki m\u00fcdafi\u0259y\u0259, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n bomba s\u0131\u011f\u0131nacaqlar\u0131 v\u0259 yan\u011f\u0131ns\u00f6nd\u00fcrm\u0259 sah\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 d\u0259 kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r pul x\u0259rcl\u0259yir.<\/p>\n

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